Fun and optimistic to think about the space exploration opportunities turning into reality. Can't find the real reading on it - it's aggregated into a component of a component.
That’s the thing; I think the $15 million is fake (or a very adjusted number that includes internal sales from one division to another and/or investor capital). The only sources I can find for “$15million” simply go back to Elon or another SpaceX executive saying it, but there has never been a validation or independent audit that confirmed it. I was hoping for it to be broken out in the S-1 when it released. Their typical launch cost to NASA is $74 million, which indicates gross negligence by NASA if the $15 million number was real. The Feds aren’t big fans of paying almost 5x your cost year after year, golden toilets and wrenches or not. At the end of the day, I suspect the “$15million” launch cost is partly why we’ve got the IPO etc happening….the capital raises and previous gov contract money has reached the end of the trail. The only way to keep the SpaceX blob stumbling forward is to IPO, since one of it’s main food groups is internal money. I don’t have Musk Derangement Syndrome…I simply have learned to doubt anything he claims unless proven 3x. He’s an excellent promoter and ponzi finance specialist, no doubt.
Your Falcon 9 read is right, and it points at the same pattern the framework has been tracking. The $15M figure is propagated as future benefit — huge savings to the government and the taxpayer — and gets used to justify the next round of capital commitment. The S-1 doesn't reconcile the figure against the company's operating economics, which require pricing realization closer to the NASA figure. The differential can't survive both views: either Falcon 9 is uniquely overcharged in government contracts, or the marketed figure isn't real economics.
The cash piece extends the same pattern at the IPO level. The IPO doesn't solve the cash dependency. The way it's structured, it creates a larger one. $20 billion contractually committed to Bridge Loan repayment in the first six months. The rest funds a fraction of what the company has disclosed it intends to spend. The IPO is the entry into a larger commitment cycle, not the exit from the dependency you're describing.
“The IPO is the entry into a larger commitment cycle, not the exit from the dependency you're describing.” - I 100% agree with this; your phrasing better captures what I was thinking (from a future perspective). Thank you for the series on this…it has helped me avoid the Mogatu “I feel like I am taking crazy pills” breakdown when listening to the average spin on the story.
Thank you. That's exactly the read I was hoping the work would land for someone — the framework exists to make the structural pattern legible, so the standard spin stops feeling like the only available register. More pieces coming this week: TAM tomorrow, then options, constraints, and a summary. Thanks for following along!
Thanks for this, the spacex 'blob' is a menace to retail investors all over the world
And here I was hoping to see the Falcon 9 $15m launch cost validated in the S-1. Small potatoes…..
Fun and optimistic to think about the space exploration opportunities turning into reality. Can't find the real reading on it - it's aggregated into a component of a component.
That’s the thing; I think the $15 million is fake (or a very adjusted number that includes internal sales from one division to another and/or investor capital). The only sources I can find for “$15million” simply go back to Elon or another SpaceX executive saying it, but there has never been a validation or independent audit that confirmed it. I was hoping for it to be broken out in the S-1 when it released. Their typical launch cost to NASA is $74 million, which indicates gross negligence by NASA if the $15 million number was real. The Feds aren’t big fans of paying almost 5x your cost year after year, golden toilets and wrenches or not. At the end of the day, I suspect the “$15million” launch cost is partly why we’ve got the IPO etc happening….the capital raises and previous gov contract money has reached the end of the trail. The only way to keep the SpaceX blob stumbling forward is to IPO, since one of it’s main food groups is internal money. I don’t have Musk Derangement Syndrome…I simply have learned to doubt anything he claims unless proven 3x. He’s an excellent promoter and ponzi finance specialist, no doubt.
Your Falcon 9 read is right, and it points at the same pattern the framework has been tracking. The $15M figure is propagated as future benefit — huge savings to the government and the taxpayer — and gets used to justify the next round of capital commitment. The S-1 doesn't reconcile the figure against the company's operating economics, which require pricing realization closer to the NASA figure. The differential can't survive both views: either Falcon 9 is uniquely overcharged in government contracts, or the marketed figure isn't real economics.
The cash piece extends the same pattern at the IPO level. The IPO doesn't solve the cash dependency. The way it's structured, it creates a larger one. $20 billion contractually committed to Bridge Loan repayment in the first six months. The rest funds a fraction of what the company has disclosed it intends to spend. The IPO is the entry into a larger commitment cycle, not the exit from the dependency you're describing.
“The IPO is the entry into a larger commitment cycle, not the exit from the dependency you're describing.” - I 100% agree with this; your phrasing better captures what I was thinking (from a future perspective). Thank you for the series on this…it has helped me avoid the Mogatu “I feel like I am taking crazy pills” breakdown when listening to the average spin on the story.
Thank you. That's exactly the read I was hoping the work would land for someone — the framework exists to make the structural pattern legible, so the standard spin stops feeling like the only available register. More pieces coming this week: TAM tomorrow, then options, constraints, and a summary. Thanks for following along!